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Penguins starved “en masse” as sardines vanished — and a warning for oceans under climate stress
Cape Town — A catastrophic food shortage linked to the climate crisis and heavy fishing pressure wiped out about 95% of African penguins at two of South Africa’s most important breeding colonies in less than a decade, researchers say — a collapse so severe it is now reshaping the conservation playbook for the species, and raising urgent questions about the future of the region’s small pelagic fishery.
The new analysis, led by scientists from South Africa’s Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) and the University of Exeter, estimates that around 62,000 breeding adults were lost from the colonies on Dassen Island and Robben Island after 2004, with starvation during the penguins’ annual moult the most likely cause. (University of Exeter News)
At the heart of the die-off: a prolonged collapse of sardines (Sardinops sagax) — the penguins’ key prey — compounded by climate-driven shifts in ocean conditions and exploitation patterns that kept fishing pressure high in the west even as the fish moved or failed to spawn there at historical levels. (University of Exeter News)
The finding is stark not only for a beloved seabird, but for what it reveals about the fragile links between climate, fisheries, and wildlife in a warming ocean.
A perfect storm at the worst time: the moulting bottleneck
African penguins replace all their feathers annually — a full moult that takes roughly three weeks. During that period, they must stay on land and cannot feed at sea, relying entirely on fat reserves built up beforehand.
That makes moulting a biological bottleneck: when prey is abundant, penguins can bulk up and survive the fast. When prey is scarce, the margin disappears.
“They are evolved to build up fat and then to fast,” said Exeter researcher Dr Richard Sherley. “If food is too hard to find before they moult or immediately afterwards, they will have insufficient reserves to survive the fast.” (University of Exeter News)
The study connected survival rates — especially through the moult — to an index of prey availability, concluding that adult survival was strongly related to food supply. (University of Exeter News)
Sardines below a quarter of “peak” for years
According to the researchers, the sardine stock off western South Africa was consistently below 25% of peak abundance during the period examined — for all but three years since 2004 — creating an extended famine for seabirds that depend on these fish. (University of Exeter News)
The Exeter team points to environmental shifts — including changes in temperature and salinity — that reduced spawning success in historically important west coast spawning areas, while making south coast spawning more successful. But fishing effort, shaped by long-standing industry structures and port patterns, remained concentrated to the west for critical years. (University of Exeter News)
In one especially damaging window, the study notes that sardine exploitation rates “briefly reached 80% in 2006” while the stock was already declining due to environmental change — likely worsening penguin mortality. (University of Exeter News)
Not just two islands: a species in freefall
While Dassen and Robben are the focus of the new mortality estimate, the researchers stress the collapse is part of a broader trajectory: African penguins have suffered a severe long-term decline across their range.
“These declines are mirrored elsewhere,” Sherley said, noting a near-80% global population decline in roughly 30 years. (University of Exeter News)
The species — endemic to southern Africa — is now classified as Critically Endangered, reflecting an extremely rapid decline linked principally to competition with commercial fisheries and climate-mediated shifts in prey. (BirdLife DataZone)
Are African penguins “endangered”? Yes — and now worse than that
One of the biggest points of confusion for readers is the language of extinction risk.
- “Endangered” is a high-risk category on the IUCN Red List.
- “Critically Endangered” is the step above that — the highest risk category before “Extinct in the Wild” and “Extinct.”
African penguins were uplisted to Critically Endangered in October 2024, according to BirdLife and IUCN specialist-group reporting, following evidence that declines are likely to exceed the threshold for the category. (BirdLife South Africa)
Multiple reports now describe the population as fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs, underscoring how little room remains for additional shocks. (The Guardian)
What it means for the future: a climate-and-fisheries test case
The penguins’ fate increasingly hinges on whether managers can keep enough small fish in the right places at the right times — in an ocean where “normal” is shifting.
1) Climate change is moving the goalposts
Warming waters and changing salinity patterns can alter where sardines spawn successfully and where young fish survive — effectively moving the penguins’ pantry. (University of Exeter News)
Even if fishing pressure is reduced, the study authors caution that recovery is “difficult” because improved sardine spawning depends on environmental conditions beyond immediate control. (University of Exeter News)
2) Fishing pressure can turn “bad years” into catastrophe
Small pelagic fisheries are often managed around biomass estimates, but the penguin story highlights a conservation reality: wildlife feels prey scarcity at a local scale, especially during sensitive life stages. High exploitation during low-biomass periods can deepen a crash — and for long-lived animals with slow reproductive rates, recovery may lag for decades. (University of Exeter News)
3) Extinction risk becomes a near-term timeline
Conservation groups have warned that, without effective intervention, African penguins could disappear from the wild within the next decade or so — with some advocacy materials citing 2035 as a potential tipping point. (BirdLife International)
What can be done — and is it already too late?
It’s not “too late” in the sense that there are still breeding colonies and viable conservation levers. But it is late enough that incremental steps may not be sufficient.
Fishing closures where penguins feed
In one of the most significant interventions yet, South Africa’s High Court ordered no-take zones (for the commercial sardine and anchovy purse-seine fishery) around six key breeding colonies, designed to secure biologically meaningful foraging areas. (BirdLife South Africa)
The logic is straightforward: when penguins are breeding or preparing to moult, every extra kilometre they must travel to find prey increases the odds that chicks starve — or that adults fail to rebuild reserves.
Adaptive fishery management tied to “low biomass” years
The study authors and associated commentary point toward more responsive rules, including reducing sardine fishing pressure when stocks are low, to avoid locking predators into multi-year prey shortages. (University of Exeter News)
On-the-ground conservation: buying time, not solving the root cause
Conservation actions already in use include:
- Artificial nests to reduce heat stress and improve chick survival,
- Predator management,
- Rescue and rehabilitation of weakened adults and chicks. (The Guardian)
These can reduce mortality and help stabilize colonies — but they cannot substitute for adequate prey.
Climate action still matters — but locally targeted measures are faster
Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is essential for long-term ocean stability, but it won’t quickly rebuild sardine biomass in a specific foraging area. That’s why local fishery rules and spatial protections are central: they are among the few levers that can change conditions for penguins within a breeding season or two.
A warning beyond penguins: the ecosystem signal
African penguins are charismatic — but they are also indicators. A sustained collapse in sardines and anchovies reverberates across the food web, affecting other seabirds and marine predators that depend on the same prey base. (African birdlife)
From that perspective, the penguin die-off isn’t only a species tragedy — it’s a message about ecosystem resilience as climate variability increases and human extraction remains high.
The bottom line
The research linking penguin losses to prey collapse delivers three hard conclusions:
- Food scarcity can kill adults at scale, not just chicks — especially during moulting. (University of Exeter News)
- Climate change and fishing together can drive prolonged prey shortages — even in productive seas. (University of Exeter News)
- African penguins are not only “endangered” — they are Critically Endangered, and the window for effective intervention is narrowing. (BirdLife DataZone)
Whether the species recovers now depends on fast, enforceable protections for prey near colonies, more flexible fishery rules in low-stock years, and sustained investment in colony-level conservation — all under the growing pressure of a warming ocean.
References / further reading
- University of Exeter (research release on Dassen & Robben die-off) (University of Exeter News)
- The Guardian (reporting on the study and conservation response) (The Guardian)
- BirdLife Data Zone / BirdLife South Africa (status and uplisting to Critically Endangered) (BirdLife DataZone)
- High Court order / BirdLife & SANCCOB announcements on fishing closures (BirdLife South Africa)
