Rising tides, hurricanes and typhoons

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The ocean is climbing—quietly, steadily, and now fast enough that scientists are starting to describe year-to-year jumps as “unexpected.” In 2024, global sea level rose more than anticipated, largely because the ocean absorbed extraordinary heat and expanded. “The rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected,” Josh Willis, a sea level researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said at the time. “What’s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.” (NASA Sea Level Change Portal)

That background rise matters because it is the “floor” for storm surge. Add even a few extra centimetres of baseline sea level, and the same cyclone can push water farther inland, overtopping seawalls more easily and turning what once was a “close call” into a flood disaster. At the same time, warmer oceans and a moister atmosphere are loading tropical cyclones with more fuel for intense winds and heavier rainfall—whether they are called hurricanes in the Atlantic, typhoons in the western Pacific, or cyclones in the Indian Ocean.

So where is the evidence—and how much of what we see is climate change, versus natural swings like El Niño and La Niña?

The evidence for rising seas: satellites, tide gauges, and an accelerating trend

The strongest global evidence for sea-level rise comes from satellite altimetry, which has been tracking the height of the ocean surface since the early 1990s. NASA’s sea-level programme and NOAA’s satellite altimetry archives both show a persistent upward trend, corroborated by coastal tide gauges. (NASA Sea Level Change Portal)

In 2024, NASA reported sea levels rose at 0.59 cm (0.23 inches) in a year, higher than the expected 0.43 cm (0.17 inches)—with thermal expansion (water expanding as it warms) playing an unusually large role. NASA Sea Level Change Portal NOAA’s climate explainer similarly notes that global mean sea level is now over 10 cm above 1993 levels in the satellite record. (Climate.gov)

This is not just a coastal inconvenience. It is a risk multiplier: higher seas mean higher storm surge and more frequent “nuisance” flooding even on calm days—particularly in low-lying deltas and island states, and in cities already battling subsidence.

Stronger storms? The signal is clearest in rain, surges—and the most intense cyclones

Tropical cyclones are complex, and the question “Are there more of them?” is not always the most informative. The more consequential signals are about hazard:

• Rainfall intensity: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, increasing the potential for extreme rainfall. This mechanism is central to why many studies expect tropical-cyclone rain rates to increase as warming continues. (IPCC)
• Storm surge: Sea-level rise lifts the baseline, increasing coastal inundation for storms that do occur. NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) highlights this as a direct consequence of rising seas. (gfdl.noaa.gov)
• The strongest cyclones: IPCC assessments conclude that the proportion of very intense tropical cyclones and associated precipitation rates are projected to increase with warming (with confidence that varies by metric and region). (IPCC)

Event-level attribution studies have also grown more common. After Hurricane Helene, a rapid analysis reported that human-caused climate change boosted rainfall and winds—an illustration of how warming can “juice” storms by raising ocean and air temperatures. “The storms … have all been amplified by the fact that the air is warmer and can hold more moisture,” climate researcher Ben Clarke told the Associated Press. AP News (Rapid attribution is not the same as peer review, but groups like World Weather Attribution publish methods and rely on peer-reviewed foundations.) (World Weather Attribution)

On the typhoon side of the world, attribution work has pointed to climate change increasing the odds or impacts of unusually severe sequences, including in the Philippines. worldweatherattribution.org Meanwhile, peer-reviewed research continues to refine how ocean heat content and regional ocean patterns can set the stage for rapid intensification. (NERC Open Research Archive)

El Niño and La Niña: the climate “gearshift” that reshuffles storm risk

El Niño and La Niña are phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle of ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Pacific. In simple terms:

• El Niño tends to warm parts of the central/eastern tropical Pacific.
• La Niña tends to cool them, often strengthening trade winds and changing rainfall belts.

ENSO doesn’t create global warming, but it can redistribute heat and alter wind patterns that affect where storms form and how likely they are to intensify.

One of the clearest ENSO links is in the Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s Climate.gov explains that La Niña generally boosts Atlantic hurricane activity by reducing vertical wind shear (winds that can tear developing storms apart), while El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic hurricanes by increasing shear. In the Pacific, the pattern is often the reverse. (Climate)

That is why ENSO features prominently in seasonal hurricane outlooks—even as climate change raises the baseline ocean warmth that storms feed on.

“La Niña is here”—but weak La Niña doesn’t mean weak impacts

In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology confirmed La Niña conditions had been in place since early October, but experts cautioned that the 2025–26 event appears weak and potentially short-lived, and may not deliver the classic “cooler, wetter” summer many people expect. (The Guardian)

“This La Niña is relatively weak and relatively short-lived so that suggests the impacts from it will be weaker too,” senior Bureau climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua told The Guardian. He also described the tug-of-war with a warming climate: “La Niña leans towards cooler temperatures, but global warming is influencing this.” (The Guardian)

WMO’s most recent ENSO update echoes the “weak La Niña” theme at a global level, noting probabilities favouring a weak La Niña through northern winter, with increasing odds of returning to neutral conditions into early 2026, and little sign of El Niño in the near-term outlook window. (World Meteorological Organization)

Crucially, “weak” refers to the ENSO index—not necessarily the lived experience. In a warmer world, even modest natural variability can ride on top of higher ocean heat and higher sea levels, and the outcomes can still be extreme.

What are the 2026 predictions for La Niña and El Niño?

ENSO prediction skill drops the farther out you go, but the most authoritative operational outlooks (WMO and NOAA) currently converge on a near-term storyline:

• Late 2025 into early 2026: La Niña conditions are favoured but likely weak, with a transition toward ENSO-neutral increasingly likely into early 2026. (World Meteorological Organization)
• Up to April 2026: WMO reports that the likelihood of ENSO-neutral rises to ~65–75% for early 2026 seasons, with El Niño prospects “negligible” in that outlook period. (World Meteorological Organization)

Beyond that (mid-to-late 2026), forecasts become more uncertain and are best treated as “possibilities,” not predictions. The practical takeaway is that planning should not hinge on any single ENSO phase—because the background warming trend and sea-level rise continue regardless.

research that is sharpening the picture

• Columbia University’s IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) is a major global centre for ENSO monitoring and prediction, collaborating with WMO and publishing model “plumes” and probabilistic outlooks used worldwide. (iri.columbia.edu)
• University of Reading (UK) has published research and forecasting work suggesting a future with more favourable conditions for Atlantic hurricanes, linked to warmer seas and wind-pattern shifts—part of a broader research effort to anticipate changing cyclone risk. (University of Reading)
• In peer-reviewed literature, studies increasingly focus on the ocean conditions that enable rapid strengthening—such as unusual concentrations of subsurface heat—and the ways climate change is reshaping the “ingredients” storms draw on. (NERC Open Research Archive)

On the typhoon side, research published in the American Meteorological Society’s journals continues to test how warming ocean structure can intensify typhoons in modelling experiments—adding detail to the broad IPCC conclusion that intense storms are expected to become more common as warming increases. (American Meteorological Society Journals)

Globally recognised climate and weather data to watch over the next six months

If you want reputable, global-scale climate guidance for the coming half-year, these are among the most widely used sources by governments, insurers, and emergency planners:

• WMO ENSO updates (global coordination of national meteorological services and leading centres). (World Meteorological Organization)
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO diagnostics and probabilistic outlooks. (Climate Prediction Center)
• Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecasts (multi-model, Europe’s flagship climate service, with global products).(Climate Copernicus)
• UK Met Office long-range/seasonal outlook resources, including ENSO-related forecasting pages. (Met Office)

These outlooks won’t tell you the exact track of a cyclone months in advance—but they can inform probability shifts in rainfall, temperature, and circulation patterns that matter for risk.

What does this mean for the future—and is it already too late?

It is not “too late” in the sense that outcomes are fixed. But it is too late to avoid all impacts already locked in by past emissions: sea level will keep rising for a long time, and extreme rain and coastal flooding risks will continue climbing as long as the planet warms.

The future is best understood as a range:

• In a higher-emissions world, sea levels rise more, oceans store more heat, and the odds tilt toward more intense rainfall and damaging storm surge events—especially for the most exposed coastlines.
• In a lower-emissions world, sea-level rise and warming continue but at a slower pace, buying time and reducing the upper-end risks.

What can be done splits into two tracks—mitigation (reducing the cause) and adaptation (reducing the damage):

1) Cut the heat source (mitigation):

• Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions reduce long-term warming, limiting how far sea levels and extreme rainfall risks climb.
• Cleaner electricity, transport, and industrial heat matter because ocean warming and thermal expansion are directly tied to the planet’s energy imbalance.

2) Live with higher water more safely (adaptation):

• Coastal protection (seawalls, surge barriers) where it’s viable—and nature-based buffers like mangroves and wetlands where they can thrive.
• Stronger building codes, resilient power and drainage systems, and floodplain management to reduce catastrophic losses.
• Early warning systems and evacuation planning, particularly for low-income coastal communities and island nations with the least margin for error.
• Managed retreat in the most at-risk areas—hard politically, but often cheaper than rebuilding after repeated disasters.

The hard truth is that rising seas and intensifying storm hazards will test governance and inequality as much as physics. The hopeful truth is that, unlike a cyclone’s landfall, the long-term trajectory is still partly in human hands.

References

• The Guardian — “La Niña is here for the summer – but it may not bring what Australians expect” (Dec 4, 2025). (The Guardian)
• NASA Sea Level Change Portal — “NASA Analysis Shows Unexpected Amount of Sea Level Rise in 2024.” (NASA Sea Level Change Portal)
• WMO — El Niño/La Niña Update (November 2025). (World Meteorological Organization)
• NOAA Climate.gov — ENSO and hurricane season impacts explainer. (Climate)
• NOAA CPC — ENSO Diagnostic Discussion / probabilistic outlook materials. (Climate Prediction Center)
• Copernicus C3S — Seasonal forecasts (multi-model). (Climate Copernicus)
• NOAA GFDL — “Global Warming and Hurricanes.” (gfdl.noaa.gov)
• World Weather Attribution — methods and event analyses. (World Weather Attribution.org)